Although Georgia has seen some positive trends in terms of poverty reduction compared to 2009, evidence shows that reduction in poverty was not commensurate with the robust economic growth of past years. During the period of the highest growth (2003-2009), Georgia had a very low growth elasticity of poverty index (2.1), meaning that 1% increase in per capita consumption was associated with only 2.1% decrease in the extreme poverty rate, whereas estimates for growth elasticity of poverty for developing countries worldwide ranged from 1.5 to 5, with an average of around 3. At the same time Georgia has one of the highest inequity and poverty levels in the region of Central Eastern Europe and CIS.
Children in Georgia face a higher risk of poverty than any other age group. No matter which threshold is applied, the percentage of children living in poverty is higher than the overall or pensioner poverty headcount. Households with children are poorer than those without children (25% compared to 20%) and the higher the number of children in household, the higher its risk of poverty. According to the latest study done by UNICEF, 77 000 children aged 0-16 live below 2 GEL per day and more than 200 000 consume less than 3 GEL a day. At present there are no cash transfers for children in Georgia aside from the benefit packages for children living in institutional care. Neither do the two main mechanisms used to mitigate poverty risks - old age pensions and targeted social assistance - take children adequately into consideration.
Georgia has an operational means tested social assistance program since 2006. It is the main cash benefit available for families with financial/material hardship. To qualify, a family submits application to the office of the Social Services Agency, an executive body of the Ministry of Labour Health and Social Assistance. The application is processed and entered into a database of socially vulnerable families. A social agent visits the applicant household to record data on indicators of its socio-economic situation which are then entered into the database ranking the assessed households. Households with a score below 57,001 are entitled to cash assistance and health insurance. Since July 2013, the cash benefit for the first family member of the household increased from previous 30GEL to 60 GEL and 48 Gel for the next family members (previously 24 GEL). As of June 2013, 45% of all households and 37 % of all population in Georgia were registered in the database of socially unprotected families and only 12% of all households and 10% of the whole population received targeted Social Assistance Cash benefit. 20% of all population registered in the database are below 18 years of age. According to the latest data available for the UNICEF coverage by TSA cash benefit of the poorest 10% of all households increased from 2009 to 2011 although nearly half of the poorest households still do not receive TSA. Whilst there are continued improvements in targeting the poorest, the TSA system is still not reaching a large share of its intended beneficiaries.
When comparing TSA coverage by households with and without children, however, it is evident that the poorest households, those with children were less likely to be receiving cash benefits in 2011. 12% of households with children were receiving TSA in 2011 compared to 15% of households without children. Even though coverage of TSA cash benefits increased compared to 2009, this positive change is more evident for households without children. Moreover, data for 2011 shows that 47% of the households in the first decile with children were not covered by cash benefits under the existing targeting system.

Project goal and objectives:

For several years, UNICEF has been advocating for refining existing social protection system so to take this shortcoming into consideration. This should be done by revising the existing means tested formula, increasing the amount of cash benefits given to the poorest households (which already was taken into consideration in 2013), increasing the qualification threshold and introducing additional child benefits, previously non-existent in the country.
In June 2013, Government of Georgia, with a leadership of the Prime Minister, committed to the new Early Childhood Development objectives and goals to be achieved by 2015. One of the main priorities is to half extreme child poverty. In order to achieve the goal the existing social protection system in Georgia needs to be revised to make it more inclusive and child sensitive. This includes revision of already existing cash programs; specifically Targeted Social Assistance program and exploration of other cash and in kind benefits targeting specifically households with children. Also development of a special prevention instrument " Child Assessment Screening Instrument" to get better information and address needs of children in the family. This instrument will be used by the social agents while assessing the needs of the family and in special cases referred to social workers for their further consideration and action. The results of the assessment tool will feed into the targeted social assistance formula to better identify needs of the children in the households.
Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Affairs asked UNICEF to financially support refinement of the existing means tested social protection system. The sophisticated methodology that is used to calculate the score of the households needs to be revised so to increase the weight of children in the household and thus increase the probability of qualifying for cash benefits for such households. At the same time support is also needed for the intersectional group activities that will be tasked to define and explore all possible child benefits, including universal benefits for children.

Responsibilities of the Data Analyst:
Together with national and international social protection consultants, the data analyst should:

• Support revision of Targeted Social Assistance system and methodology
• Carry out simulations and projections of different child benefits as opposed to the revised and amended methodology of the targeted assistance
• Carry out simulations and projections of different types of means-testing methodology using the Database of Socially Unprotected Families. Results should include the demographic data on potential TSA beneficiaries identified in each model. The simulations include the introduction or of new parameters/indicators in the existing methodology, as well as altering the weights of the parameters based on international/national practices.
• Explore possibility of including income component in the social protection system
• Identify 3-4 best models to be considered for testing. Categorization of the scenarios should include increased number of vulnerable children as a main component.
• Test the hypothetical models - The families in the database will randomly be assigned to one of the models and alternative score will be calculated for each family except the control group. The survey will be conducted in each of the groups with multistage sampling methodology and consumption poverty will be calculated for each sampled household.
• Inclusion and exclusion errors will be calculated in each group.
• Cost of each model will be estimated.
• Design and support of field testing of the new methodology.

Outcomes/Results:

• List of indicators and coefficients
• 3-4 possible models for alternative methodology
• Report on the testing of hypothetical models and estimated cost of each model
• Analysis of inclusion and exclusion errors
• Final report with recommendations.

Qualifications:

• Advanced university degree in Social Sciences, Policy Analysis, Economics, Applied Mathematics or Statistics
• Outstanding knowledge of data processing programmes (Stata, SPSS, etc.)
• Strong econometric skills; experience with modelling and simulations
• At least eight years of experience in data analysis
• Excellent writing skills
• Knowledge of English language
• Experience of working with household surveys, panel surveys, large datasets
• Knowledge of Georgia's Social Protection System
• Knowledge of poverty, deprivation and social exclusion issues; women and child related issues; social and economic aspects of well-being is essential
• Experience with Proxy means testing methodology is an asset.

Timeline: The consultant will be needed for 60 days.

source: jobs.ge